Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
